Notre Dame Knocked Out of CFP - Alabama and Miami In

In a controversial decision, Notre Dame has been knocked out of the College Football Playoff in favor of Miami and Alabama at the 11th hour. This surprise comes as stunning to both College Football fans and Notre Dame fans alike given their top-10 ranking they maintained nearly the entire season, but nonetheless serves as a blow to the Irish faithful.

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The Numbers Everyone’s Talking About

The debate doesn’t become clear until you dig into the advanced metrics, as many of which strongly favored Notre Dame over both Miami and Alabama.

According to ESPN’s most recent Football Power Index (FPI), Notre Dame ranked No. 3 heading into the final week. This is ahead of Miami at No. 7 and Alabama at No. 8. FPI is designed to project future performance and assess the true underlying strength of a team. On that basis, the analytics world viewed Notre Dame as one of the elite teams in the country.

Other advanced ratings told the same story. Computer models such as SP+, FEI, and various Sagarin-based predictors consistently placed Notre Dame above Miami, and in many cases above Alabama as well. If the committee truly weighed “best team” metrics, Notre Dame had a clearer path in than either of the teams chosen ahead of them.

Strength-of-schedule numbers likewise supported Notre Dame. One public composite system rated their SOS at 159.5, compared to Miami’s 151.75. Alabama still had one of the toughest slates in the country, but Notre Dame’s was a clear notch above Miami’s and was more than strong enough to justify their resume in the eyes of most analysts.

Put simply, many major advanced metric painted Notre Dame as one of the strongest teams in the nation and in nearly every meaningful way, stronger than Miami and especially Alabama given how they laid the egg in the SEC conference championship

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What the Committee Pointed To

Despite the analytics, the committee leaned heavily on qualitative criteria: head-to-head results, conference championships, “quality wins,” and the infamous “who would win today” logic. Miami’s early-season win over Notre Dame in August seems to have carried a major weight. Alabama’s case rested on SEC competition, a strong SOS, and the committee’s perception of “resilience” in close games.

Those factors, while valid in a human-centered evaluation, stood in contrast to the underlying data that suggested Notre Dame was consistently stronger week-to-week.

Advanced Stats vs. The Human Element

• FPI: Notre Dame No. 3, Miami No. 7, Alabama No. 8

• Strength-of-Schedule: Notre Dame higher than Miami in public composite systems

• Predictive Ratings (SP+, FEI, Sagarin Predictor): Notre Dame consistently rated ahead of Miami and on par with or ahead of Alabama

• Record-quality-style metrics: Notre Dame’s resume scored as equal or stronger than Miami’s in numerous systems

This created a rare case where nearly every objective system supported Notre Dame — and the committee still went the other way.

The Betting Markets Weighed In

Even in the betting markets which tend to follow predictive analytics Notre Dame was being treated as a legitimate contender. Futures boards kept the Irish in the competitive tier with respectable odds to make the playoff and even win the national championship. When the CFP field was announced, odds for Miami and Alabama surged while Notre Dame’s plummeted, not because bettors suddenly doubted the Irish, but because the committee’s decision ended any market-based path to the playoff. FanDuel had them listed at -3000 prior to the committees announcement of CFP rankings.

The Social Media Firestorm

Within minutes of the reveal, the reaction across X (formerly Twitter) was explosive.

• Verified accounts amplified that Notre Dame’s FPI ranking made the snub look indefensible.

• Notre Dame’s coach Marcus Freeman’s comments about being “upset” after being jumped by Alabama circulated widely. Their athletic director similarly was upset.

• Irish fans promoted posts pointing out that every major analytic system placed Notre Dame above Miami.

• Even several neutral analysts posted side-by-side comparisons of FPI, SP+, and Sagarin numbers that showed Notre Dame outperforming Miami across the board.

The consensus online was clear: the numbers didn’t justify the result.

Why Notre Dame Fans Feel Especially Betrayed

Independent teams already face an uphill battle with the committee’s unwritten rules and shifting criteria. But this year felt different. Notre Dame posted high-efficiency wins, dominated late in the season, and earned elite placement in many major analytics model.

When the team with the No. 3 FPI can be left out in favor of No. 7 and No. 8, fans are left wondering what the committee’s priorities actually are.

What This Means for the CFP Going Forward

This decision adds fuel to two ongoing debates:

1. Transparency in Selection CriteriaFans and analysts are calling for more clarity on how metrics like FPI, SP+, or SOS are weighed. When analytics are publicly available but seemingly ignored, trust in the system erodes.

2. Notre Dame’s FutureNotre Dame’s athletic leadership has made clear that this decision has “long-term implications.” Whether that means pushing for more guaranteed access protections, reevaluating scheduling, or even revisiting conference affiliation remains to be seen.

The Final Takeaway

Numbers and narratives collided, and the narrative won. The committee leaned on head-to-head results, subjective criteria, and a confidence in their own judgment that ran counter to the analytics. The result isn’t just a snub, but a referendum on how the CFP evaluates teams and a controversy that won’t be forgotten anytime soon.